regress.fish
Honest bite chart
NOAA · Sonoma Coast
Chart 18643 · ed. 11
soundings in metres · MLLW
Bodega Bay
PROVISIONAL
calibrated on
simulated labels

Notice to mariners — not yet validated skill.

No real catch feed is wired in. These probabilities are calibrated against simulated labels to test our harness honestly. Read them as a working draft of the chart, not surveyed depths. Methodology & model card →

Bite chart — Sonoma Coast

38.30°N · 123.06°W
sensors fresh · 06:18 PDT
68%
bite probability
Rockfish & lingcod · next 3h
90% interval0.58 – 0.77
isotonic-calibrated base rate 0.421 swell 4.2ft slack tide 06:18
123°10′W123°06′W123°02′W 38°22′N38°18′N38°14′N 8264 4631 2218 5537 Bodega Head Russian R. mouth 0.73 0.59 0.31 low conf you Outer reef · 73% Doran surf · 59% buoy 46013 buoy 46214 N 012 nm SONOMA COAST
<0.35 low
0.35–0.55
0.55–0.65
>0.65 strong bite
isolines = equal bite-p · soundings in m

Live model inputs

NOAA / NDBC / USGS feeds
sensors fresh
Barometric pressure
1014.2hPa
↘ −3.1 / 6h · falling
Water temp · buoy 46013
12.8°C
↘ −0.4 anomaly
Wind vs shoreline
onshore
SW 9kt
favorable · onshore
Russian R. flow · USGS
142cfs
p38 · turbidity ↑
Brier score
0.232 vs 0.251
lower is sharper — beating climatology
Skill
+0.076
4 walk-forward folds
Base rate
0.421
observed bite frequency
Interval
90%
isotonic-calibrated coverage
Recompute
Sun
published even when we're wrong